Home prices are falling in these 32 real estate markets as affordability improves after the toughest quarter in 38 years

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Home prices are falling in these 32 real estate markets as affordability improves after the toughest quarter in 38 years

James Faris Feb 12, 2024, 8:22 AM CST

Property prices and mortgage rates fell after the worst quarter for home affordability since 1985.
Homebuyers are still facing stubbornly high borrowing costs and limited home supply.
Here are 32 cities where single-family home prices fell in late 2023, according to a new report.

Home affordability improved slightly in the US late last year, but this housing market is still one of the unfriendliest for buyers in the past four decades.

Modest yet meaningful declines in home prices and mortgage rates gave aspiring homeowners some much-needed relief in the fourth quarter, according to recently released data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The median price for US single-family homes was about $391,700 in the final quarter of 2023, the NAR announced in a February 8 report. That figure is below the going rate of $406,867 from July through September but was still up 3.5% from the year before.

Another small win for buyers is that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is down from a peak of 7.8% in late October to 6.6%, which is roughly where it was in late 2022. However, that rate is still well above the 3% to 5% range it was in for the mid-2010s and early 2020s.

Affordability remains historically awful

Although lower home prices and borrowing costs are welcome news for hopeful buyers, the drops so far certainly aren’t worth doing backflips over.

The third quarter of 2023 was the worst three-month stretch for home affordability in 38 years, according to data from the NAR’s housing affordability index. So while last quarter was a bit better for buyers, it was still the second-worst market since 1985.

A typical monthly mortgage payment on an existing single-family home with 20% down upfront was $2,163, according to the NAR’s fourth-quarter report. That was 1.2% lower than in the third quarter but a 10% increase from late 2022 — a difference of nearly $200 per month.

“Many homebuyers have been shocked at high housing costs, with a typical monthly mortgage payment rising from $1,000 three years ago to more than $2,000 last year,” said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the NAR, in a statement released with the report.

Yun continued: “This doubling in housing costs for recent home buyers is not included in the official consumer price index inflation calculations and contributes to the sense of dissatisfaction about the economy.”

Homeowners are spending just over a quarter of their take-home pay on their mortgage, which is in line with the rate from the prior quarter and the previous year. That’s a sizable chunk of income, but it pales in comparison to the 39.4% that first-time buyers are spending.

In nearly half of US markets, families bringing in less than $100,000 couldn’t afford to buy a standard home on a 10% down payment last quarter, according to the NAR.

However, there are a few silver linings in this grim market. Home inventory is expected to rise this year, and interest rates are projected to fall at least a few times, which would bring down mortgage rates. More supply, in particular, would put more downward pressure on home prices.

“Increased homebuilding, along with lower mortgage rates, will not only improve housing affordability but also help bring more homes onto the market in 2024,” Yun said in a statement.

32 cities where home prices are falling

Property value gains were widespread and significant in the fourth quarter. Single-family home prices climbed across all four regions of the country, led by a 7.3% jump in the Northeast. The NAR also noted that prices rose in 86% of the 221 markets it tracks, up from an 82% rate in the third quarter.

In fact, home values were more likely to rise by double digits — as was the case in 34 cities — than fall outright. Only 32 markets had houses that were cheaper in aggregate than in late 2022.

Below are those 32 US cities where single-family homes got cheaper in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year, according to the NAR. Along with each market is its year-over-year home-price change and the median home price in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, as well as the fourth quarter of 2022.

1. Jackson, Mississippi

Jackson, Mississippi, skyline over the Capitol Building. — Jackson, Mississippi.

Year-over-year price change: -14.1%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $195,500

Median home price in Q3 2023: $234,200

Median home price in Q4 2022: $227,500

Source: National Association of Realtors

2. Cleveland, Ohio

Year-over-year price change: -8.6%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $190,700

Median home price in Q3 2023: $236,700

Median home price in Q4 2022: $208,700

Source: National Association of Realtors

3. Naples, Florida

Year-over-year price change: -5.9%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $755,000

Median home price in Q3 2023: $770,000

Median home price in Q4 2022: $802,500

Source: National Association of Realtors

4. Akron, Ohio

Year-over-year price change: -5.6%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $181,500

Median home price in Q3 2023: $220,300

Median home price in Q4 2022: $192,300

Source: National Association of Realtors

5. Punta Gorda, Florida

An aerial view of a green city bordering a body of water. — Punta Gorda, Florida.

Year-over-year price change: -5.5%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $371,000

Median home price in Q3 2023: $374,400

Median home price in Q4 2022: $392,800

Source: National Association of Realtors

6. Provo, Utah

Downtown Provo at sunset with shops and trees lining main street and mountains in the background. — Provo, Utah, is a city that’s growing in population in part due to its natural beauty and its thriving tech scene.

Year-over-year price change: -4.8%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $500,900

Median home price in Q3 2023: $532,700

Median home price in Q4 2022: $526,400

Source: National Association of Realtors

7. New Orleans, Louisiana

New Orleans french quarter — French Quarter in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Year-over-year price change: -4.6%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $263,300

Median home price in Q3 2023: $281,500

Median home price in Q4 2022: $275,900

Source: National Association of Realtors

8. San Antonio, Texas

Year-over-year price change: -4.3%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $315,700

Median home price in Q3 2023: $332,100

Median home price in Q4 2022: $329,800

Source: National Association of Realtors

9. Elmira, New York

Year-over-year price change: -4.2%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $142,700

Median home price in Q3 2023: $156,600

Median home price in Q4 2022: $148,900

Source: National Association of Realtors

10. Sarasota, Florida

Year-over-year price change: -3.9%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $499,900

Median home price in Q3 2023: $515,000

Median home price in Q4 2022: $520,000

Source: National Association of Realtors

11. Beaumont, Texas

Year-over-year price change: -3.8%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $199,400

Median home price in Q3 2023: $212,300

Median home price in Q4 2022: $207,300

Source: National Association of Realtors

12. Cape Coral, Florida

Year-over-year price change: -3.5%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $400,000

Median home price in Q3 2023: $405,000

Median home price in Q4 2022: $414,300

Source: National Association of Realtors

13. Chico, California

Year-over-year price change: -3%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $407,000

Median home price in Q3 2023: $424,700

Median home price in Q4 2022: $419,600

Source: National Association of Realtors

14. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

Year-over-year price change: -2.9%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $362,500

Median home price in Q3 2023: $366,700

Median home price in Q4 2022: $373,500

Source: National Association of Realtors

15. Austin, Texas

A street filled with cars in Austin, Texas. — Austin, Texas.

Year-over-year price change: -2.6%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $466,400

Median home price in Q3 2023: $485,700

Median home price in Q4 2022: $478,900

Source: National Association of Realtors

16. Owensboro, Kentucky

owensboro ky — The Big O Music Festival in Owensboro, Kentucky.

Year-over-year price change: -2.4%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $194,300

Median home price in Q3 2023: $212,700

Median home price in Q4 2022: $199,000

Source: National Association of Realtors

17. Crestview, Florida

Okaloosa Island Florida — Crestview is in Okaloosa County, Florida.

Year-over-year price change: -2.3%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $394,600

Median home price in Q3 2023: $407,000

Median home price in Q4 2022: $403,700

Source: National Association of Realtors

18. Little Rock, Arkansas

Little Rock, Arkansas, skyline on the river at twilight. — Little Rock, Arkansas.

Year-over-year price change: -2.3%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $200,000

Median home price in Q3 2023: $216,700

Median home price in Q4 2022: $204,800

Source: National Association of Realtors

19. Memphis, Tennessee

Memphis, Tennessee.

Connor D. Ryan/Shutterstock

Year-over-year price change: -2.2%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $248,400

Median home price in Q3 2023: $280,000

Median home price in Q4 2022: $254,000

Source: National Association of Realtors

20. Eugene, Oregon

Year-over-year price change: -2%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $450,400

Median home price in Q3 2023: $476,900

Median home price in Q4 2022: $459,500

Source: National Association of Realtors

21. Honolulu, Hawaii

Waikiki beach and Honolulu's skyline. — Honolulu, Hawaii.

Year-over-year price change: -1.9%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $1,069,400

Median home price in Q3 2023: $1,061,900

Median home price in Q4 2022: $1,090,200

Source: National Association of Realtors

22. St. George, Utah

Year-over-year price change: -1.7%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $541,600

Median home price in Q3 2023: $541,900

Median home price in Q4 2022: $550,700

Source: National Association of Realtors

23. Baton Rouge, Louisiana

Year-over-year price change: -1.6%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $262,900

Median home price in Q3 2023: $263,700

Median home price in Q4 2022: $267,100

Source: National Association of Realtors

24. Santa Fe, New Mexico

Year-over-year price change: -0.9%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $629,700

Median home price in Q3 2023: $669,400

Median home price in Q4 2022: $635,200

Source: National Association of Realtors

25. Lakeland, Florida

The skyline of Lakeland, Florida overlooking water. — Lakeland, FL.

Year-over-year price change: -0.8%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $335,600

Median home price in Q3 2023: $335,000

Median home price in Q4 2022: $338,300

Source: National Association of Realtors

26. Cleveland, Tennessee

Year-over-year price change: -0.7%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $290,300

Median home price in Q3 2023: $322,200

Median home price in Q4 2022: $292,300

Source: National Association of Realtors

27. Fargo, North Dakota

Aerial View of Fargo ND Skyline at Dusk — Fargo, North Dakota.

Year-over-year price change: -0.5%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $284,500

Median home price in Q3 2023: $290,200

Median home price in Q4 2022: $285,900

Source: National Association of Realtors

28. Houston, Texas

Houston, Texas, downtown park and skyline at twilight. — Houston, Texas.

Year-over-year price change: -0.4%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $336,600

Median home price in Q3 2023: $345,600

Median home price in Q4 2022: $337,900

Source: National Association of Realtors

29. Huntsville, Alabama

Huntsville, Alabama skyline. — Huntsville, Alabama.

Year-over-year price change: -0.4%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $333,500

Median home price in Q3 2023: $325,200

Median home price in Q4 2022: $334,800

Source: National Association of Realtors

30. Mobile, Alabama

Overview of Mobile, Alabama. — Mobile, Alabama.

Year-over-year price change: -0.3%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $206,900

Median home price in Q3 2023: $233,800

Median home price in Q4 2022: $207,500

Source: National Association of Realtors

31. Charlotte, North Carolina

Aerial view of downtown Charlotte, North Carolina. — Charlotte, North Carolina.

Year-over-year price change: -0.1%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $395,100

Median home price in Q3 2023: $406,900

Median home price in Q4 2022: $395,500

Source: National Association of Realtors

32. Abilene, Texas

Year-over-year price change: -0.1%

Median home price in Q4 2023: $234,600

Median home price in Q3 2023: $253,300

Median home price in Q4 2022: $234,900

Source: National Association of Realtors

News

Home prices are falling in these 32 real estate markets as affordability improves after the toughest quarter in 38 years

Affordability remains historically awful

32 cities where home prices are falling

1. Jackson, Mississippi

2. Cleveland, Ohio

3. Naples, Florida

4. Akron, Ohio

5. Punta Gorda, Florida

6. Provo, Utah

7. New Orleans, Louisiana

8. San Antonio, Texas

9. Elmira, New York

10. Sarasota, Florida

11. Beaumont, Texas

12. Cape Coral, Florida

13. Chico, California

14. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

15. Austin, Texas

16. Owensboro, Kentucky

17. Crestview, Florida

18. Little Rock, Arkansas

19. Memphis, Tennessee

20. Eugene, Oregon

21. Honolulu, Hawaii

22. St. George, Utah

23. Baton Rouge, Louisiana

24. Santa Fe, New Mexico

25. Lakeland, Florida

26. Cleveland, Tennessee

27. Fargo, North Dakota

28. Houston, Texas

29. Huntsville, Alabama

30. Mobile, Alabama

31. Charlotte, North Carolina

32. Abilene, Texas

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